All teams have to struggle with selection problems in a match day at some point during the season. That means that preferred, strongest starting elevens may not always take to the pitch and that can really scupper the best-laid betting strategies.
But it’s not just enforced absences that can shake things up. Managers like to tinker with formations and starting personnel, and while the starting line-up they send out likely won’t have a huge bearing on the football betting odds, for the punter that means that value bet opportunities can be created.
The Player Not Involved
The first metric to size up is who is the missing player. One of the most influential players on the pitch for a team is the main striker. Most clubs have only one preferred number nine in their squad.
If that’s a world-class player like Harry Kane, Erling Haaland or Kylian Mbappé, who are regular sources of goals for their clubs, then that will have an effect. Replacement players are not likely to be as good and can even change the way the team is set up.
Teams try to play to the strengths of their star forward. If they are missing and are instead relying on a backup striker who possesses a different skill set, that could drastically shift the way a game goes.
A team having to tactically adjust making them less efficient isn’t likely to be reflected in the odds, creating opportunities for punters to pounce on potentially inaccurate market quotes.
Left Out at the Back
Arguably, it is less impactful if a fullback or a central defender is out of business. Teams generally have much deeper banks of depth for this area than in attack. While a leading defender’s absence will naturally be missed, it’s not as big of a hole to fill as that of a leading striker.
Club Captain
There are some natural-born leaders in the game and if the heart of the team, the club captain, goes missing for a game, that can have a knock-on effect. Players may not feel quite as driven and lack the focus to get through tough periods of matches without their main club captain screaming at them.
Red Cards
Another scenario where a player may be absent from at least part of the game, is in a red card situation. If a player gets sent off early in the first half of a match, that will naturally cause a huge shift in the match’s outright odds.
Playing with ten men for a long time is a huge disadvantage of course, but on the flip side of that, losing a player through a red card can unite and rally a team into performing a dogged defensive effort. Red cards are often game-changers, which is where live in-play betting comes into its own, allowing punters to react to the markets on the fly.
Skill Sets Are the Telling Factor
The most telling thing for how to predict the impact of a player’s absence is the skill sets of the absent player and the replacement. If the missing player is a lightning-quick winger who is responsible for creating most of the team’s best attacking chances, is a like-for-like replacement coming in?
Loss of pace in a certain position can have quite an effect, especially in the back line, as a defence may have to sit deeper than usual, which generally invites extra pressure. At the news of an important player sitting out, consider what that will do to formations and tactics.
Summary
The starting lineup has significance, and that is why it is always worth checking on the expected starting elevens for teams ahead of a match. Keep abreast of injury and suspension news ahead of match betting as well, as these can be valuable pointers to how a game may play out. Absences are not the only determining factor of an outcome, but it is information that should still be considered as part of your pre-match analysis.
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